🍁TARIFFWARS.CA

Canada's Trade War Tracker

THE FIGHT FOR CANADA'S ECONOMY

Tracking every tariff, every counterpunch, every impact — province by province. Independent. Canadian. Updated daily.

Updated May 20, 2026 · Data sourced from Government of Canada, USTR, CBSA, court filings

Annual Trade at Risk

$700B+

US-Canada bilateral

CUSMA-Protected

~88%

Canadian exports

Household Impact

$1,700–$2,000/yr

Canadian households (The Fulcrum, Feb 2026)

Steel/Aluminum Tariff

50%

No CUSMA exemption

Jobs Affected

32,500+

Steel + aluminum direct

IEEPA Refunds

$35.5B

Processed as of May 11, 2026

⚖️ Legal Update

Section 122 — CIT ruled 2-1 on May 7, 2026 that Section 122 tariffs are unlawful (State of Washington et al. v. Trump) — majority held statute applies only to genuine balance-of-payments crises, not trade deficits. Relief limited to named plaintiffs; no universal injunction. Federal Circuit issued administrative stay May 12, 2026 — tariff collection continues pending appeal.

⚡ Estimated Cumulative Cost to Canadian Households

CAD

Day 0 of the trade warSince March 4, 2025+$93/second

𝕏 Post on X

Methodology

~$1,300/yr avg per household (Yale Budget Lab / BoC models, Apr 2026) × 15.6M Canadian households. Household costs only — GDP contraction, investment freezes and business losses not included. This is the floor.

Today's Briefing

📡 Daily Briefing

TODAY'S TRADE WAR UPDATE

AI-generated from verified sources · Editorially reviewed for accuracy and insight · Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Generating today's briefing...

Provincial Impact

🗺️ The Map

EVERY PROVINCE HAS A TARIFF STORY

Click any province or territory to see how tariffs are hitting your region.

The Escalation Record

🥊 Canada's Counterpunch

HOW CANADA IS FIGHTING BACK

Every retaliatory tariff, trade ban, support program and diplomatic move — most recent first.

Apr 22, 2026

Carney Wins Majority — Stronger Hand

PM Carney wins majority government running on a Canada-first trade platform. "We are not a supplicant" — Carney. Majority gives Canada a more unified negotiating position heading into the July 1 CUSMA review. New trade advisory council announced.

📜Apr 16, 2026

Canada Seeks Comprehensive Trade Deal

LeBlanc says Canada wants a full agreement, not one-off sector deals. Refuses partial agreements leaving steel, aluminum and autos for separate negotiations. Position strengthened by Carney's election majority.

⚖️Apr 15, 2026

6-Month Manufacturing Input Pause

Canada announces 6-month remission on retaliatory tariffs for specified manufacturing inputs (~April 15 – Oct 15, 2026). Performance-based automotive remission for companies maintaining Canadian production. LETL begins accepting applications.

🤝Mar 6, 2026

Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze

Trade Minister LeBlanc meets USTR Greer in Washington — first formal contact since Oct 2025 breakdown. No formal negotiation process announced. USTR later states Canada is 'lagging behind' Mexico.

📋Jan 2026

Manufacturing Remissions Expire

General manufacturing remissions on US steel/aluminum inputs expire. Auto, aerospace and public health sector remissions extended through Jun 2026. Forces manufacturers to source non-US or absorb costs.

🔩Dec 2025

Steel Derivatives Protection

Canada imposes 25% tariff on steel derivatives from ALL countries (not just US) — doors, windows, fasteners. Non-FTA steel over-quota tariffs set at 50%. Quotas slashed to 20% of 2024 levels.

⚖️Sep 2025

Strategic Tariff Rollback

Canada removes retaliatory tariffs on most consumer goods to ease domestic costs. Steel, aluminum and auto counter-tariffs remain. Pragmatic move to reduce self-inflicted pain while keeping strategic pressure.

🛡️Jun 2025

Federal Work-Sharing Expanded

Government expands Work-Sharing program eligibility to cover tariff-affected workers. Supports up to 26,000 workers. Includes seasonal workers and non-profits.

🍁Apr 2025

Buy Canadian Campaign Launches

Federal and provincial governments launch coordinated 'Buy Canadian' campaigns. Consumer sentiment shifts measurably — polling shows 67% of Canadians actively avoiding US products.

🚗Apr 2025

25% Auto Counter-Tariff

Canada imposes 25% tariff on non-CUSMA US-origin vehicles entering Canada. Targets American brands assembled outside CUSMA compliance.

🍷Mar 25, 2025

LCBO Pulls All US Alcohol

Ontario's LCBO removes 3,600 US alcohol products from 35 states. $965M/yr in sales wiped out overnight. BC, Nova Scotia and other provinces follow with similar measures.

🔴Mar 4, 2025

25% Counter-Tariffs Activated

Canada imposes 25% retaliatory tariffs on US steel, aluminum and consumer goods. Immediate response to IEEPA tariffs taking effect.

The Escalation Record

CANADA vs. UNITED STATES — MOVE BY MOVE

Every escalation, retaliation and pivot since March 4, 2025. Tap any card to expand.

🍁 Canada

United States

Canada's Counterpunches

Apr 22, 2026

Carney Wins Majority — Stronger Hand

diplomatic

Apr 16, 2026

📜 Canada Seeks Comprehensive Trade Deal

diplomatic

Apr 15, 2026

⚖️ 6-Month Manufacturing Input Pause

adjust

Mar 6, 2026

🤝 Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze

diplomatic

Jan 2026

📋 Manufacturing Remissions Expire

adjust

Dec 2025

🔩 Steel Derivatives Protection

tariff

Sep 2025

⚖️ Strategic Tariff Rollback

adjust

Jun 2025

🛡️ Federal Work-Sharing Expanded

support

Apr 2025

🍁 Buy Canadian Campaign Launches

campaign

Apr 2025

🚗 25% Auto Counter-Tariff

tariff

Mar 25, 2025

🍷 LCBO Pulls All US Alcohol

ban

Mar 4, 2025

🔴 25% Counter-Tariffs Activated

tariff

US Escalations

May 14, 2026

🤝 Trump-Xi Beijing Summit

diplomatic

May 12, 2026

🏛️ Federal Circuit Stays CIT Ruling

legal

May 7, 2026

⚖️ CIT Rules Section 122 Unlawful 2-1

legal

May 7, 2026

EU Auto Tariff Deadline Extended to July 4

escalation

May 6, 2026

📋 Section 301 China Four-Year Reviews Launched

legal

May 2, 2026

🛢️ China Blocks US Sanctions Compliance

escalation

May 1, 2026

🚗 25% EU Vehicle Tariffs Announced

escalation

Apr 20, 2026

💰 IEEPA Refund Portal (CAPE) Goes Live

legal

Apr 10, 2026

⚖️ CIT Hears Section 122 Challenges

legal

Apr 2, 2026

💊 Pharmaceutical Tariffs Announced: 100% on Patented Drugs

escalation

Apr 2, 2026

⚙️ Metals Tariffs Restructured: 50% on Full Value

escalation

Mar 2026

🔍 Section 301 Probes Launched

escalation

Feb 24, 2026

⚖️ Section 122 Enacted: 10%

escalation

May 2025

📦 De Minimis Eliminated

escalation

Apr 3, 2025

🚗 Auto Tariffs: 25%

escalation

Mar 12, 2025

⚙️ Steel & Aluminum Doubled to 50%

escalation

Mar 4, 2025

🚨 IEEPA Emergency Tariffs: 25%

escalation

Canada's 12 responses to 17 US escalations reflects a strategy of measured, targeted retaliation — not matching every move dollar-for-dollar.

🇺🇸 US Tariff Rate Context

Key US rates affecting Canada right now

→ Full rate tables at TariffCharts.com

Section 12210%

Under appeal — Federal Circuit stay in place; expires Jul 24

Steel 23250%

No CUSMA exemption — all Canadian steel imports subject to full rate

Autos 23225%

CUSMA US-content portions exempt; remainder taxed

Aluminum 23250%

No CUSMA exemption despite Canada being largest US supplier

Practical Intel

🔍 Cross-Border Intelligence

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR WALLET

Practical impacts on shopping, travel, jobs and daily life in Canada.

📦Online Shopping from the US

Changed

De minimis duty-free threshold eliminated. ALL cross-border purchases now face tariffs regardless of value. That $20 Amazon.com order? Duties apply. Ship to a Canadian address or use a cross-border service that handles customs.

🛒Grocery Prices

Up 3–8%

Imported produce, packaged goods and anything with US-sourced ingredients costs more. Tariff pass-through to grocery shelves is estimated at 3–8% on affected items. Buy Canadian alternatives where possible — many exist.

💵The Canadian Dollar

Weakened

Trade uncertainty has pushed the loonie down 5–10% against the US dollar. Your money buys less in the US than 18 months ago. Factor this into any cross-border travel, shopping or business.

⛽Gas Prices

+$0.05–$0.15/L

10% tariff on Canadian energy exports affects the broader North American energy market. Pump prices have increased on both sides of the border in some regions.

✈️Travelling to the US

More Expensive

Weaker dollar + higher US prices = significantly reduced purchasing power. A weekend in Buffalo costs 15–20% more than it did in 2024. Border wait times also up at major crossings.

🚗Car Buying

+$3,000–$12,200

Whether built in Canada, the US or imported — car prices are up across the board. Parts cross the border up to 8 times during assembly. Every crossing adds cost. New car prices reflect cumulative tariff impact.

🏠Home Renovations

Up 10–25%

Steel products (50% on primary, 25% on derivatives), lumber (+10% Sec 232 on existing duties), cabinets and vanities (25%). April 2 metals restructuring lowered some derivative costs but raised primary metal costs. A $50K renovation now costs $55–62K.

💼Your Job

Sector-Dependent

Manufacturing, resources and export-dependent industries are most exposed. Check if your employer qualifies for federal Work-Sharing support. Tech, healthcare and domestic services sectors are less directly impacted.

✊ What You Can Do