Every tariff, every counterpunch and every province, tracked independently from Canada. A new briefing every day and a site update every week.
Today's briefing →Canada's counter-tariffs add about C$4B a year at the checkout (Trevor Tombe, The Hub, Sept 1, 2026). Income lost to US tariffs isn't included.
The US taxes Canadian goods under three laws: Section 338 (50% on listed goods, about C$27.6B at launch, no CUSMA exemption; since Sept 15, stacking on top of Section 232 for goods on the alcohol and motor-vehicle lists); Section 232 (steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and more); and Section 301 forced-labor tariffs (10% on Canadian goods that don't qualify for CUSMA). Since Sept 29, Section 338 bans cover packaged Canadian alcohol; whey products, molasses and non-alcoholic beer; and motorcycles over 800cc, while listed dairy and cheeses stay at 50%. On Jan 1, 2027 US tariffs on cabinets and vanities rise to 50%, and Trump has threatened 50% on Canadian cars, trucks and parts. Canada's counter-tariffs (15–50% on C$27.6B of US goods, 50% on US steel and aluminum) have applied since Sept 8; talks have been suspended since Aug 21. IEEPA refunds: about US$122B sent to Treasury as of Sept 11; Phase 3, for court plaintiffs only, opened Oct 6.
Ontario faces a tariff squeeze from three directions at once: 25% auto tariffs, Section 338 goods now in effect and Canada's own Sept. 8 retaliation raising costs on Ontario's US imports.
CBP's CAPE refund portal opened Phase 3 on October 6, 2026. It covers finally liquidated entries for which the Court of International Trade has ordered reliquidation, and is open only to plaintiffs with pending IEEPA cases at the court. As of September 11, about $134.7B in claims had been accepted and about $122B sent to Treasury for payment. Source: CBP.
President Trump said on October 6 that he was 'in no rush to resume trade talks with Canada'. Canada suspended the negotiations on August 21, and no talks have been scheduled since. Sources: IANS, Local 10 (Oct 6, 2026).
Import bans on packaged Canadian beer, wine, spirits and cider; whey products, molasses and non-alcoholic beer; and motorcycles and mopeds over 800cc took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on September 29, under Proclamations 11061–11063 signed September 8. Gateway's count of the proclamations' lists: 68 banned tariff lines (53 alcohol; 14 whey, molasses and non-alcoholic beer; 1 motorcycles). American Action Forum analyst Jacob Jensen calculated the covered goods totalled $967 million in Canadian imports based on 2025 figures, with alcoholic beverages making up roughly 87% of that value. Sources: AP (Sept 29, 2026); Gateway (tariff lines).
A Commerce notice in the Federal Register (2026-19498) sets out procedures for the Proclamation 11020 pharmaceutical tariffs and renumbers their tariff lines (9903.04.60–9903.04.70). The 100% tariff on patented drugs applies from July 31 to the 17 Annex III companies and from September 29 to all others. Companies with both an approved onshoring plan and an MFN pricing agreement pay 0% through January 20, 2029; an onshoring plan alone means 20%, rising to 100% on April 2, 2030. Generics are exempt.
Two proclamations signed September 8 took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on September 15. They added 122 tariff classifications, by GHY International's count: specialty cheeses such as Cheddar, Emmentaler, Gruyere, Parmesan and Provolone on the alcohol list; ATVs, golf carts, motorboats, furniture, lamps and steel and aluminum structures on the 'motor vehicle' list. Rock salt, cement and some other goods were removed. Goods on the alcohol and motor-vehicle lists now pay Section 338 duties on top of Section 232 duties, up to 75% combined on some steel and aluminum structural products. No CUSMA exemption. Sources: Federal Register; GHY International; Troutman Pepper Locke.
Meeting Irish PM Micheál Martin in Dublin, President Trump said a trade deal with Canada could come 'fairly soon', repeated that the US had been 'ripped off' for 50 years, and played down leaving USMCA. No talks were scheduled. Sources: CP24, Bloomberg (Sept 12, 2026).
Canada's counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% took effect at 12:01 a.m. on September 8 on 629 tariff items covering C$27.6 billion of US imports. Finance Canada says the package matches the US Section 338 tariffs dollar for dollar; counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% to match US rates, and a few steel and aluminum products pay 25%. Goods already in transit on September 8 are exempt. Source: Finance Canada list of products (Aug 2026).
President Trump signed five proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (11061–11065). Three ban imports from 12:01 a.m. ET on September 29: packaged Canadian beer, wine, spirits and cider (bulk alcohol stays at the 50% duty); whey products, molasses and non-alcoholic beer; and motorcycles and mopeds over 800cc. Listed dairy such as milk and cream, and the cheeses listed Sept 15, stay at 50%. CUSMA origin gives no exemption. Goods imported but not entered for consumption before September 29 pay the 50% duty instead of the ban. The White House cited Canada's 'continued discriminatory treatment of crucial American exports'. Sources: Federal Register, White House fact sheet, Troutman Pepper Locke.
70.7 US cents on Sept 25, 2026, down 1.5% from a year earlier (Bank of Canada). It buys less on US trips and online.
What Canada's counter-tariffs add for a family with kids; under C$170 without kids (Trevor Tombe, The Hub, Sept 1, 2026).
Food bought in stores, August 2026, from all causes, not only tariffs (Statistics Canada, Sept 14). US dairy such as cheese pays Canada's counter-tariff, mostly 25%.
August 2026 (Statistics Canada). Not a tariff effect: Canadian oil and gas pay no US tariff, and Statistics Canada ties the rise to the conflict in the Middle East.
Vehicle prices, August 2026, all causes (Statistics Canada). Canada's 25% counter-tariff applies to US vehicles that don't qualify for CUSMA.
Homeowners' maintenance and repairs, August 2026, all causes (Statistics Canada). US steel and aluminum products pay Canada's 25% or 50% counter-tariff.
| Canadian goods | US measure | Since | CUSMA exemption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged beer, wine, spirits and cider | Import ban (50% Section 338 until then); bulk alcohol stays at 50% | Sept 29, 2026 | No |
| Whey products, molasses and non-alcoholic beer | Import ban (50% Section 338 until then) | Sept 29, 2026 | No |
| Motorcycles over 800cc | Import ban | Sept 29, 2026 | No |
| Milk, cream, lactose, casein and other listed dairy | 50% Section 338 (not banned) | Aug 22, 2026 | No |
| Goods on the 'motor vehicle' list: electronics, machinery, plastics, apparel, furniture and more (no vehicles) | 50% Section 338, on top of Section 232 where both apply (since Sept 15) | Aug 22, 2026 | No |
| Hockey equipment and other non-alcohol goods on the 'alcohol' list | 50% Section 338 (not banned) | Aug 22, 2026 | No |
| Goods added Sept 15: listed cheeses (Cheddar, Swiss, Gruyere, Parmesan, Gouda and more), ATVs, golf carts, motorboats and more | 50% Section 338 | Sept 15, 2026 | No |
| Steel and aluminum mill products | 50% Section 232 | Jun 4, 2025 | No |
Since Sept 15, 2026, goods on the alcohol and motor-vehicle lists that also pay Section 232 duties pay both. Not legal advice: check a product's tariff line with a customs broker.
US-Canada goods & services 2025 (USTR official data); goods $715.5B + services $156.8B; down 4.6% ($42.1B) from 2024; figures in US dollars
80.2% of imports from Canada and Mexico claimed USMCA exemption in July 2026 (Penn Wharton Budget Model, Sept 9, 2026); Section 338 tariffs (effective Aug. 22, 2026) impose 50% duties regardless of CUSMA compliance on approximately $27.6B CAD of listed goods — scope expanded Sept. 15, 2026 (122 new HTSUS items added; Section 338 now stacks on Section 232 for the alcohol and motor-vehicle lists) — supplemented by import bans on packaged Canadian alcohol, whey products, molasses, non-alcoholic beer and motorcycles over 800cc effective Sept. 29, 2026 (listed dairy and cheeses stay at 50%); CUSMA moved to annual reviews after the US declined to renew it at the July 1, 2026 joint review
At the checkout: ~C$250/yr (families), under C$170 (no kids), from Canada's Sept 8 counter-tariffs. Tombe, Sept 2026 Cost to Canada: ~C$1,700 to C$3,100 per household a year in lost income by 2029–30. Derived; the method is under “How we count” beside the checkout counter
Section 232 tiered: 50% primary, 25% derivatives, 15% through 2027 on industrial, grid and farm equipment and residential HVAC (Jun 8, 2026) — no CUSMA exemption; Section 338 now stacks on Section 232 effective Sept. 15, 2026, producing combined additional duties of up to 75% on some steel and aluminum structural products; Canada retaliating at 50% on US steel/aluminum effective Sept. 8, 2026
About 87,200 Canadian jobs at risk from the Section 338 tariffs (Trevor Tombe, The Hub, Aug 26, 2026). Manufacturing employment was down 52,000 year over year in February 2026 but little changed year over year by August 2026 (Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey). The Sept 8–15 escalation and Sept 29 import bans are not yet modelled
As of Sept 11, 2026, CBP's CAPE portal had accepted ~$134.7B in refund claims and sent ~$122B to Treasury for payment; ~$1.3B is held up by missing ACH details. Phase 1 launched Apr 20, 2026; Phase 2 (reconciliation entries) June 29; Phase 3 opens Oct 6, 2026 for court plaintiffs only. DOJ appealed the CIT refund order June 2, 2026; members of Congress urged CBP Sept 9 to fix processing delays
The week's tariff developments in one email: data from TariffCharts.com, with the Canadian story from TariffWars.ca. Free, weekly, unsubscribe any time.